Euro Currency Futures and the HVMM 2010

With the current release of the our new Ultimate Trade Analyzer software, the power of HVMM 2010 has become ever more apparent. The ability to change our settings was a welcome enhancement to the original HVMM but without a tool like UTA, it was difficult to really get a clear view of the results with the kind of depth and insight that we now can enjoy.

The Euro Futures is a great case in point. In our live Futures Trade Room, we had been watching and practice trading a 233 tick chart for a few weeks now. It appeared that we had found a great menu of settings for our HVMM calculator. But not until plugging the trades into the UTA were we able to really see how great the method had been trading in this market and timeframe. Today, we finally took the EC off of practice mode and officially called the system. And as is usually the case, one would expect Murphy to show up and wreak havoc on our first session.  Especially with a session as slow and mundane as this morning’s.  But that just was not the case.

The EC gave us a perfect session, two trades, two winners, see ‘ya tomorrow!  In fact, our new trailing stop strategy, on our 2nd position even added some profit to our 2nd trade, inspite of a tight, listless market.

So how good has the EC done these past few months, using the HVMM 2010? Here’s an excerpt from Live Futures Traderoom Blog:

I tested the EC 233 from Feb 1 thru this past Friday’s session, April 23rd.  February was difficult.  I hadn’t added the 2nd position yet.  I decided to add the 2nd position beginning March 1st.

The final result as of Friday was a total point tally of +726 for $9,075.  It won a solid 2/3 to 1/3 or 66%.  It swung as high as 71%, end of March – early April.  Also, it really fought back.  February started bad and it was able to climb out of the dumpster and it seems to be stabilizing.   It is sitting right below its equity highs and looks poised to breakout anytime.

This can be traded as a single position approach too.  To trade it as a dual position strategy though, I’m recommending a $12,000 starting account.  It can be done with $10,000, but in actuality, I would prefer $15,000 so I chose $12,000 as a compromise.

There are some other stats that stand out.  For example, the maximum loss was $238 vs. the Maximum win of $900.  That’s due to the trailing stop.  The average loss vs. avg win are a bit more complicated.

The avg win is $116 vs the avg loss, $136.  As you can see, the avg loss is greater than the avg win by about $20, less than 2 points.  But it is winning twice as many trades as it is losing, 2:1, which is why it has proven to be so profitable.

The PF is sitting at 1.67, meaning we can expect to win $1.67 for every $1 we lose.  The expectation table puts us in the middle of the yellow zone so we must remain vigilant.  The EC is quite volatile.  I believe that the poq studies will help us.  By quitting at our profit goals OR, 3 losses, whichever comes first, we can increase our profitability a little bit.  The winning percentage will go up to 67.3%.  and we would have made about 9% more in profits over the same period of time.  We don’t know if this will continue to make a difference going forward.  We could stop trading after three losses and then miss a big trailing stop move, which hasn’t shown up yet.  We could also avoid more losses on choppy sessions.   There’s always a flip side and always a consequence to every decision we make.  For sure, both scenarios will happen at some point so I will make it easier on all of us, and use the 3 loss as our circuit breaker for now.  But, in the end, this will have to be an optional decision that each trader makes for himself.

This is just one example of one profitable market that can be traded with HVMM 2010.   Check out the Euro’s eccentric cousin, the British Pound futures, over the same stretch of time, with the exact same settings.  UTA shows us that it won 70.4% of its trades, capturing +731 net points with just a one position approach.  It’s profit factor is sitting at +2.08, which is excellent.  It’s been able to grab $12,973 in profits per single position just since Feb 1st, on just 152 trades!  Not bad considering the minimal amount of time each day we spent trading; 2.5 hours at the most, and usually considerably less.  Get in, Get out, Get done!

HVMM 2010 is better than before and now that we are all trading with it, and gaining more and more experience using it, our tradeplans are proving that they can produce, consistently, over and over again.  And with the extra knowledge that UTA gives us, we can see the edge that we have in the market and can arm ourselves with the confidence necessary to ‘take the next trade.’  Afterall, we don’t have control over what the markets will do, but we DO have the ability to put the odds in our favor on every trade.   HVMM 2010 puts the odds in our favor and UTA shows us how those odds stack up.  And it looks real good!